Here is an Editorial for the Express Tribune

The victory of Iran’s moderate cleric Hassan Rouhani in the presidential election is good news on many counts. He was able to secure the support of the opposition as well as the reform groups within Iran. Hopefully, a departure will be made from the hard-line worldview of his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who had taken the country towards international isolation. A remarkable feature of the Iranian elections was the high voter participation of 72 per cent. Compared with the 55 per cent in the recent Pakistani elections, this surely sets a benchmark for the region. Rouhani’s election campaign highlighted, not unlike Nawaz Sharif, the economic woes of Iran and on working out a more conciliatory approach towards the West. Iran badly needs relief from the sanctions imposed by the West, especially the United States, for its economy to pick up.

The fundamentals of Iranian polity remain unchanged. The all-powerful “Supreme Leader” and the council of clerics firmly control policy in the country. But this minor shift will work in Iran’s favour as president-elect Rouhani was the lead nuclear negotiator under the reign of Mohammad Khatami and is, therefore, well endowed with diplomatic experience. Iran’s growing young population and the quest of its populace to integrate with the world should be better served with this win.

The real question is whether the new president would be given some space by the powerful Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and endow him with the authority to improve relations with the West. The West must note the message given by the Iranian population. A majority of the country’s population has backed the pragmatic line that Rouhani takes. Thus, it is time for effective engagement with Tehran and giving up on paranoia over Iran’s nuclear programme. Pressured by the pro-Israel groups in the US, the Obama Administration had adopted a coercive approach. Given Iran’s proximity to Pakistan and Afghanistan and the 2014 Nato pullout, it is essential that the US support regional cooperation efforts.

 

 

Here is another on-point editorial from ExTrib

For those who thought that there would be monumental shifts in Pakistan’s foreign policy with the advent of a new government in Islamabad, it is time to settle for realism. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s latest message to the heads of Pakistani missions abroad restate what has been stated time and again. His government wants to pursue “economic diplomacy” and favours a “peaceful neighbourhood”. As Prime Minister Sharif prepares to battle with theenergy crisis, his government’s foreign policy guidelines make an overt reference to this issue and direct the heads of missions abroad to suggest bilateral and multilateral partners with tangible project proposals in the traditional and renewable energy sectors. This is easier said than done, especially given the security climate. But Prime Minister Sharif’s pro-business reputation may salvage the otherwise intractable situation and we may witness some success on this front.

The issue of domestic security is directly linked to our foreign policy. As the guidelines rightly identify, unless the region is peaceful, Pakistan’s efforts for growth and development will not bear fruit. This is where the issue of Afghanistan and how Pakistan will act in the run-up to the Nato withdrawal becomes critical. The guidelines reaffirm the need for developing a regional consensus on supporting a stable government in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s official policy of backing “an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned process of peace and reconciliation”.

Considerable pragmatism has entered into the PML-N’s policy stance since winning the election. The guidelines call for progressive pursuit of normalcy in bilateral relations with India and seeking solutions to all outstanding issues, including Jammu and Kashmir. A good part of the guidelines seems to be the emphasis on “close cooperative relations” with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. Thankfully, the issue of terrorism has also featured in these guidelines where the new premier has mentioned developing a comprehensive strategy and a national consensus on the threat of terrorism. Finally, in terms of Pakistan-US relations, there is a clear case of continuity, on working on areas of divergence and consolidating where both countries converge. With respect to the foreign policy, we should not expect radical changes anytime soon

Articles 62 and 63 also suggest disqualification if a candidate is deemed to be against the ‘ideology of Pakistan’. Sadly, that very term was coined under the influence of Jamaat e Islami and General Yahya Khan’s comrade Gen Sher Ali contributed to its adoption for cynical reasons. History is a witness to Gen Yahya’s own conduct and the utter disdain he had for his Bengali subjects. The genesis of this term therefore is self-serving and purely hypocritical. Soon, the same junta trumpeting the ideology of Pakistan led an army action against Pakistanis and the events of 1971 remain a blot on our collective conscience. (more…)

The year 2012 will be remembered for a fragile democracy that continued to consolidate itself amid regional instability and belligerence of unelected institutions trying to assert their waning powers.

The year began with the brewing tensions on the memo affair whereby the military-intelligence complex had accused Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani, of seeking US intervention should there be a coup in Pakistan.

During late 2011, the Supreme Court was moved by the opposition leaders to take cognisance of this drummed up ‘national security’ issue. In the wake of the mounting pressure the former Prime Minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, delivered his famous remarks where he complained of a ‘state within the state’ operating in Pakistan.

This tension set the course of events to follow. Unelected institutions – the military, intelligence agencies, judiciary and the media – dominated the national scene and constructed how democracy was viewed and the performance of the civilian governments at centre and provinces was assessed.  The memo affair took a new turn when media reports emerged that the then-chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had undertaken a tour of Muslim countries allegedly to build support for a coup d’état in Pakistan.

Such unverified reports exerted pressure on the military and it decided to backtrack and settle for the dismissal of the ambassador. A commission formed by the Supreme Court released its report which sadly regurgitated the petitioners’ point of view as well as the notion of ‘national security’ popularised by the state since the inception of Pakistan. (more…)

My recent analysis for Express Tribune published yesterday:

 Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s inevitable ouster has created another storm in Pakistani politics reminding us of the endemic political instability that has plagued the country since its inception. The judicial verdict, which renders Gilani as disqualified since April 2012 may lead to further legal crises. The Supreme Court had its intentions quite clear since January when it rebuked the PM for not implementing its orders. The elected government continued to defy court orders and made political capital out of the judgments, invoking its troubled past with the judiciary.

The recent allegations of corruption levelled by infamous business tycoon Malik Riaz on the chief justice’s son added another twist to the executive-judiciary struggle. Many observers viewed the hand of the executive behind this move. Several detractors of President Zardari also hinted at the latter’s role in this saga. The Supreme Court swiftly reacted and unified in the face of what was interpreted as an ‘attack’ on its independence. The decision to disqualify Gilani therefore comes as a sequel and cannot be isolated from the recent events. Concurrently, the court has also been active on the missing persons case, which implicates powerful members of the security establishment.

Since 2007, there has been a redistribution of power within Pakistan’s formal state structure. The judiciary has emerged as a relatively independent player and has distanced itself from its historical ally, the military. This new reality and power shift was a messy one as it entailed conflict with the civilian and military arms of the executive at various points in recent years. Yesterday’s decision comes as a final expression of this intra-state struggle. Whether this struggle will involve a showdown with the security agencies remains to be seen. However, given the court’s resolve to assert its authority, this eventuality cannot be ruled out. (more…)

By Raza Rumi:

A situationer that was written last week..

Published: January 12, 2012

If there is one phrase that would summarise the events of Wednesday it would be ‘media frenzy’ caused by the new players in Pakistani politics: The ubiquitous news channels, hyper-imaginative TV anchors and the social media. By early evening, rumours of an impending coup had gripped Pakistani imagination; and many people were led to believe that the end of the government was nigh. The source of this storm wasan ISPR press release that expressed military’s objection to the contents of Prime Minister Gilani’s interview with a Chinese news agency. The PM had implied that the army and intelligence chiefs had acted unconstitutionally in the memo affair by submitting affidavits directly to the Court. “There can be no allegation more serious than what the honorable prime minister has leveled,” stated the ISPR with reference to Gilani’s remarks. Further, the ISPR announced that this “has very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country.”

(more…)

By Raza Rumi:

Adecade after the ghastly attacks on the Twin Towers, the world has not changed. It is business as usual: imperial projects, ‘dangerous’ foes and millions of hapless, voiceless people. 9/11 was a reprehensible act perpetrated by a desperate and rogue network whose ideologues had hijacked a faith and its symbolism long before they started to assert their worldview by force.
While most 9/11 perpetrators belonged to the Middle East and its infamous Holy Kingdom, Pakistan emerged as the epicentre of terror in the global imagination and continues to occupy that exalted position. Its neighbourhood has been ransacked and occupied by the liberators and now the war on terror has turned into a contested, essential Pakistani experience. Nearly a million people in Iraq are dead or missing but never mind. It is time for the West to take stock of what happened due to a relentless pursuit of ambition and greed of an unaccountable, omnipotent war industry. (more…)

By Raza Rumi:

In the past few weeks, the intractable crisis of governance has once again exposed the dysfunctional nature of the Pakistani state, and its inability to grapple with basic issues of citizenship. After all, the guaranteeing of people’s rights and entitlements is the responsibility of the state, which it simply cannot abdicate. In Sindh, 5.3 million people have been affected by flash floods, out of which 250,000 are now homeless. The floods had been predicted earlier but the provincial and federal authorities were shamefully ill-prepared like last year. In Punjab, over 5,000 people are battling against the dengue epidemic and there are indications that it may spread to other parts of the country.

The killings in Karachi have momentarily halted but as hundreds of citizens were butchered for no fault of their own, the politicians indulged in a macabre game of accusing each other of breaking up Pakistan. Pity that the discourse on Karachi came down to Zulfiqar Mirza versus the MQM and seldom did anyone debate the fundamental causes of ethnic conflict, social breakdown and the governance vacuum. The killings have been followed by the inundation of the megalopolis by heavy rains. The civic failures of Karachi and Lahore on drainage and public health have exposed how cities cannot function without effective, accountable local governments. (more…)

By Raza Rumi

Recent reports quote General Kayani saying that Pakistan-US relations are “good” and were “improving”. These remarks follow hectic parleys between various levels of Pakistani and US officials in the recent weeks. The zealous hyper-nationalists of Pakistan found aplenty in the Urdu press, among the TV anchors and right wing politicians, were surely weakening the case for Pakistan as it struggles to manage internal insurgencies and handle a war on its northwestern front. I recall that Pakistan’s ambassador to the US, Hussain Haqqani had pleaded for reason, not letting emotions override serious business like foreign policy. The security establishments’ engagement with the US counterparts, therefore, is nothing but a ‘realistic’ move to repair ties that need to be repaired. Without a cooperation framework how can Pakistan even think of succeeding to retain its influence in the region?

At a recent seminar in Islamabad, organised by the Centre for Civic Education, a speaker remarked that the most illustrative aspect of Pakistanis resilience was the ability to survive, despite cognitive dissonance. Our civil-military elite have nurtured cognitive dissonance for decades, leading to a widespread disturbance of thinking and perception of reality. Our leader of the opposition in the parliament, who thunders against the US at the drop of a hat, was rattled by a WikiLeaks cable that exposed how his family members were US citizens! He organised a press conference and defended his anti-Americanism. A good psychologist would decipher the language used by the maverick politico and identify how he, not unlike many others, intensely suffers from cognitive dissonance. (more…)

By Raza Rumi:

I fervently hope that Shahbaz Taseer is back by the time these lines are published. However, the past few days have been distressing to see the Taseer family facing yet another trying phase. The young Taseer was abducted on a busy Lahore road on August 26. His case is not uncommon in a country where kidnapping is becoming a popularstrategy with the state, criminal gangs and militant outfits. Hundreds of Pakistanis are missing across the country for various reasons. Despite the intervention of Superior Courts and pronouncements by the political executive, little progress has been made.

Taseer’s abduction followed the kidnapping of Dr Warren Weinstein, representative of a US consulting firm, J E Austin from his house in an affluent part of Lahore. Dr Weinstein is a 70-year-old man suffering from various ailments and his life is surely in danger. These kidnappings say a lot about the level of policing in the province. A Police Force notorious to suppress citizens especially the poor is obviously ill trained to handle such cases. In fact, the policemishandling of forensic evidence in Shahbaz Taseer’s car — right under the watch of TV cameras — speaks volumes for the incompetence in basic treatment of crime scenes. In the case of Dr Weinstein, as media reports suggest, they may have botched up the recovery process by hasty announcements about his possible location. (more…)

By Raza Rumi

The recent escalation of violence and senseless butchery in Karachi serves to remind us once again just how the state is withering away in Pakistan. State-building has always been a neglected project in Pakistan’s largest city. Ineffective and weak institutions were commandeered by large, organised mafias often with public support on the basis of ethnic identity. This spurred other groups to organise themselves in a similar manner and now Karachi is a playground of ethnic battles and fascist tactics with violence seen as a legitimate instrument to achieve and exercise political power. Click here to read complete article.

Rarely have countries been so incapable of responding to challenges, as is the case with Pakistan. Last year, the worst flood in our historyhit millions of poor Pakistanis, wiping away their livelihoods and depriving them of their dwellings and, in many cases, land entitlement. It was due to the resilience of the Pakistani people thatsome post-flood rehabilitation took place. Like much else in the country, people took their lives into their own hands and the state, at best, was a secondary player. Media focus remained on the politicisation of the response to the natural disaster and making heroes out of army battalions which, at least on paper, are subordinate to the elected executive.

What has happened since then? I was intrigued to note an advert a month ago in the national newspapers wherein a multilateral agency was hiring a programme manager for ‘early recovery’ after floods! Multilaterals reflect the speed and bureaucratic labyrinths of the government and, therefore, this little notice seemed farcical at best. Forget early recovery, we are now back in the monsoon season. And the federal and provincial governments appear to be as ill-equippedas before.

I was part of a team that undertook post-flood assessment and had a chance to interact with key stakeholders last year. The attitudes of some high level public officials are a subject of a satirical book rather than this short piece. In summary, their assumption was that the poor were resilient and knew how to deal with disasters and that life goes on. Several of the recommendations that we offered remain unimplemented, chiefly those relating to local governments. (more…)

Pak Usa Relation

By Raza Rumi :

Six months ago, an extraordinary news report was published by Dawn, which recounted the contents of a military briefing given to journalists on November 30, 2010. A top Pakistani military official stated that Pakistan “has transited from the ‘most sanctioned ally’ to the ‘most bullied ally’” of the US. Essentially an off-the-record briefing, the contents were leaked to the public wherein the army leadership declared that the US had a “transactional” relationship with Pakistan. That the US was “interested in perpetuating a state of ‘controlled chaos’ in Pakistan”; and the “real aim of US strategy is to denuclearise Pakistan.”
Paranoia about the US runs deep into the Pakistani psyche now. Other than the reticent generals, it is the vocal media men who have now made anti-Americanism an article of faith of Pakistani patriotism. (more…)

By Raza Rumi

Pakistan’s right wing has flourished on the crutches of a national security doctrine: A world view, which prioritises paranoia and ‘security’ of ideological and geographical frontiers. Never mind if the majority of Pakistanis have no access to water and sanitation or the public education and health systems have virtually collapsed. The events of May 2011 cast a long shadow over the merits of investing in security institutions and fuelling patriotism with conspiracies.

First, the poster-Shaikh of anti-Americanism has been ‘eliminated’ when the mighty guardians were asleep. The new round of WikiLeaks cables reveals anecdotal evidence of civil-military acquiescence to the grand designs of ‘evil’ America, including the nasty drones that kill civilians. And now, the latest attack on a well-guarded naval base and destruction of high-value military equipment has jolted us all. (more…)

The dramatic events of May 2, enacted in Pakistan’s small, sleepy town of Abbottabad have surely shaken the world. The global icon of al Qaeda — Osama bin Laden — has been ‘eliminated’ through a well-executed, covert operation. This was a major victory for charismatic US president Barack Obama especially given his dwindling popularity, and will help him survive in office, perhaps, for another term. It isunlikely that this development will lead to the end of global terrorism. While his death may have symbolic value, Osama was not in any case in charge of al Qaeda operations and hence the impact may not be much.

The most significant aspect of this game-changing event, perhaps, is the cutting of all ties between al Qaeda and sections of our security establishment. While Pakistan’s assistance in executing the operation against bin Laden’s hideout is being downplayed for political reasons, it should be obvious that all this couldn’t have happened without its active help. For all its front line status, the Pakistani state has not yet permitted the Americans to operate in the ‘settled’ areas, the way unmanned drones work in Fata. The recent hullabaloo over the strained Pakistan-America relationship has once again proved to be exaggerated: Stories were spun for domestic political consumption in both countries. (more…)