Trade with India: Nawaz Sharif must fulfill his mandate
Raza Rumi
India will gain from freer mutual trade, but so will Pakistan

A paramilitary soldier stands guard as a truck crosses into Pakistan from India, at the Wagah border
It seems that the PML-N government may well be set to achieve one of its key policy goals ie bolstering trade with India. During 2013, the process of normalization was scuttled by the untoward tensions on the Line of Control (LoC) and the situation was controlled in part by the meeting of DGMOs in December 2013. That was a welcome initiative led by Nawaz Sharif himself and reportedly some quarters were not all that pleased with such a putsch from the PM’s office.
For years, the right wing and fringe extremists have abused the term Most Favoured Nation (MFN) as some kind of a ‘concession’ to India at the cost of national sovereignty. The political elites have resisted this narrative and Sharif happens to be the most consistent and clear advocate of trading with India. To bypass the constructed discourse on MFN the government is set to give India Non Discriminatory Market Access (NDMA) – on a reciprocal basis – which essentially implies sorting out some of the irrational barriers erected over the years to discourage and/or block trading with the enemy. The positive list of Pakistan comprises 8000 items, but only 1967 are importable from India while the negative list includes 1209 items. In 2012, federal cabinet approved abolishing this negative list.
The facts are simple: India gave Pakistan the MFN status in 1996 thereby undertaking that no Pakistan specific duties were imposed on Pakistani goods by India. We have yet to reciprocate, as the conventional view was that until the more thorny issues of Jammu & Kashmir, Siachen etc were resolved, trade with India could undermine our ‘national interest’. The previous coalition government started the dialogue and was successful in effecting a shift in the security-dominated approach to trade. By the end of 2012, trade figures jumped as more and more items were allowed to be traded from the maze of negative list of goods set by the commerce ministry.
We can’t remain hostage to the past
Since last two years, nearly 85% of the goods are already open for trade. Contrary to the scaremongers’ prediction, Pakistani markets are not flooded with Indian goods and the local industry has not been ‘destroyed’. If anything, and the current government realizes it, the free trade agreement with China has been more penetrative. Pakistani markets are flooded with Chinese products that are much cheaper. Yet our manufacturers have not gone out of business. In September 2012 the federal cabinet decided to transfer all importable items on positive list and open the Wagah-Attari route for maximum trade. The decision could not be implemented and the year 2013 was consumed by the political developments and the usual case of ‘non state’ actors playing their game at the LoC.
Punjab’s Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif undertook a major diplomatic effort last year and prepared the ground for renewed parleys on trade especially between the business lobbies. Composite dialogue remains suspended and it would be vital for that to ring-fence and insulate it from the usual security shocks. If the US and Soviet Union could continue talking at the height of Cold War, why can’t these two neighbours keep diplomatic channels of communication open?
During the visit of CM Punjab, India-Pakistan joint business council also proposed commencing of container trade via Wagah for 24 hours. Wagah is open for trade except for import of those items on the negative list. Pakistan has the required technology to scan containers and implementing this agreement would not be inimical to our security situation. If anything, it is going to boost economic growth in the short term. Both sides have agreed to enhance the number of gates at the border. The discussions of ministers in the recent months led to agreements on keeping Wagah border open 24×7, initiating trade via containers and agreeing on the mutual NDMA.
Two notifications are expected soon, other things being equal: One that will abolish the negative list and another that may open Wagah for twenty-four hours with increased number of items crossing the border.
The estimates from Pakistan’s Commerce Ministry suggest that Pakistan is likely to gain $2.5 billion in short term and up to half a million new jobs. Its current exports are likely to treble. While the trade balance could skew in favour of India, the gains made by consumers and manufacturers (through cheaper raw materials) could offset this concern. The window of opportunity is there and if the Sharif administration uses it we could realize the tangible benefits within a short span of time.
At the same time the government will have to allay the concerns of agriculture, textile, FMG and automobile sectors. The Commerce Ministry has been holding closed-door sessions with representatives of these sectors; and if there are adequate guarantees perhaps their fears may well prove to be a little exaggerated. Some of the items currently protected under the Negative List after NDMA will be protected under the Sensitive List maintained under the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). The automobiles and pharmaceuticals are likely to be protected under the SAFTA Sensitive List. India has also agreed to exclude 160 items – mainly textile products – from its Pakistan-specific Sensitive List and will further reduce this list from 614 items to 100 items.
Nawaz Sharif was elected on the promise of boosting economic growth, providing jobs and fixing the energy crisis. It is time for his cabinet not to be afraid of moving ahead. There is a political consensus in the country and those who oppose further expansion of trade with India overlook the imperatives of our economic situation. We don’t have to give up our principled positions on security issues nor stop negotiating them bilaterally. But we can’t remain hostage to the past.
Another conspiracy theory, that it is the Sharifs and their cronies who are pushing for trade for personal gain, makes no sense. Business lobbies – Sharif or non-Sharif – are backing the trade thaw and we have to set our priorities right. Instead of seeking bailouts and expensive loans from abroad why not think of a Pakistan that produces enough to export and is integrated into the regional and world economy. About time we grew out of the ideological framework that has stunted rational policy choices and has turned us into an impoverished, indebted ‘national security’ state.
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Hey there. I discovered your web site by way of Google while looking for a related matter, your web site got here up. It looks great. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to visit then.
Hiya, I am really glad I’ve found this info. Today bloggers publish only about gossip and net stuff and this is really annoying. A good site with exciting content, this is what I need. Thank you for making this site, and I will be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hiya, I’m really glad I have found this info. Nowadays bloggers publish only about gossip and internet stuff and this is really frustrating. A good site with exciting content, that is what I need. Thanks for making this site, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
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Awesome post. I’m a normal visitor of your blog and appreciate you taking the time to maintain the nice site. I will be a regular visitor for a long time.
Hi there. I found your site by way of Google while looking for a similar subject, your site came up. It appears to be great. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
Awesome write-up. I am a normal visitor of your site and appreciate you taking the time to maintain the nice site. I will be a regular visitor for a really long time.
Hello there. I found your blog by means of Google while searching for a related matter, your site got here up. It seems to be good. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
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Awesome post. I am a normal visitor of your site and appreciate you taking the time to maintain the excellent site. I’ll be a frequent visitor for a long time.
Awesome post. I’m a regular visitor of your website and appreciate you taking the time to maintain the excellent site. I’ll be a regular visitor for a long time.
Hiya, I’m really glad I have found this information. Nowadays bloggers publish only about gossip and internet stuff and this is actually annoying. A good web site with interesting content, this is what I need. Thanks for making this web-site, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hiya, I’m really glad I have found this info. Nowadays bloggers publish only about gossip and internet stuff and this is actually frustrating. A good website with interesting content, that is what I need. Thanks for making this web-site, and I will be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
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I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you make this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz answer back as I’m looking to construct my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. cheers
Awesome post. I am a regular visitor of your blog and appreciate you taking the time to maintain the nice site. I’ll be a regular visitor for a really long time.
Hello there. I discovered your site via Google while looking for a comparable subject, your site came up. It looks good. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to visit then.
Awesome post. I am a normal visitor of your web site and appreciate you taking the time to maintain the nice site. I will be a frequent visitor for a long time.
Awesome post. I am a normal visitor of your web site and appreciate you taking the time to maintain the excellent site. I’ll be a frequent visitor for a long time.
Hey there. I found your blog by way of Google at the same time as searching for a comparable subject, your site got here up. It seems great. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
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Hey there. I discovered your web site by means of Google while searching for a comparable subject, your web site got here up. It appears good. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to visit then.
Hiya, I am really glad I have found this info. Nowadays bloggers publish only about gossip and web stuff and this is actually frustrating. A good web site with exciting content, this is what I need. Thank you for making this website, and I will be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hiya, I am really glad I have found this information. Today bloggers publish only about gossip and net stuff and this is actually annoying. A good blog with exciting content, that’s what I need. Thanks for making this web site, and I will be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Awesome post. I’m a normal visitor of your site and appreciate you taking the time to maintain the excellent site. I will be a frequent visitor for a long time.
Hi there. I found your site by way of Google even as searching for a related subject, your website came up. It appears to be good. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to visit then.
Hey there. I discovered your web site via Google even as looking for a related topic, your site came up. It appears good. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
Hiya, I’m really glad I’ve found this information. Nowadays bloggers publish just about gossip and net stuff and this is actually annoying. A good site with interesting content, this is what I need. Thank you for making this web site, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hello there. I found your web site by way of Google whilst looking for a comparable subject, your web site came up. It seems to be good. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to visit then.
Hi there. I found your website by way of Google at the same time as looking for a comparable topic, your site came up. It appears great. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
Hey there. I discovered your blog by way of Google while looking for a comparable subject, your website got here up. It looks good. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
Hiya, I am really glad I’ve found this information. Today bloggers publish only about gossip and internet stuff and this is really irritating. A good web site with exciting content, this is what I need. Thank you for making this site, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hi there. I found your website by the use of Google at the same time as searching for a comparable topic, your web site came up. It appears to be good. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
Awesome post. I’m a regular visitor of your site and appreciate you taking the time to maintain the excellent site. I’ll be a frequent visitor for a long time.
Hiya, I’m really glad I’ve found this info. Nowadays bloggers publish just about gossip and web stuff and this is actually frustrating. A good web site with exciting content, that is what I need. Thanks for making this website, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hello there. I discovered your web site by the use of Google at the same time as looking for a related matter, your website came up. It seems to be good. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
Hiya, I’m really glad I’ve found this info. Today bloggers publish just about gossip and internet stuff and this is actually annoying. A good web site with interesting content, this is what I need. Thanks for making this site, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Awesome write-up. I’m a regular visitor of your web site and appreciate you taking the time to maintain the nice site. I will be a frequent visitor for a really long time.
Hiya, I am really glad I’ve found this info. Nowadays bloggers publish only about gossip and net stuff and this is really irritating. A good site with exciting content, this is what I need. Thanks for making this web site, and I will be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hey there. I discovered your web site via Google while searching for a similar matter, your web site got here up. It appears good. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
Hiya, I’m really glad I’ve found this information. Today bloggers publish only about gossip and net stuff and this is really irritating. A good blog with exciting content, that is what I need. Thanks for making this website, and I will be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hiya, I’m really glad I’ve found this info. Nowadays bloggers publish just about gossip and web stuff and this is actually frustrating. A good web site with interesting content, that’s what I need. Thank you for making this web-site, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hiya, I’m really glad I’ve found this information. Today bloggers publish just about gossip and web stuff and this is actually frustrating. A good site with interesting content, that’s what I need. Thanks for making this web site, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hey there. I found your web site via Google at the same time as searching for a comparable matter, your website came up. It appears to be great. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
Hey there. I discovered your website by means of Google while searching for a similar topic, your web site came up. It seems to be great. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to visit then.
Hiya, I am really glad I have found this info. Today bloggers publish just about gossip and internet stuff and this is really frustrating. A good blog with exciting content, this is what I need. Thank you for making this website, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?
Hi there. I found your site by means of Google at the same time as looking for a related topic, your web site came up. It seems great. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to come back then.
Hi there. I discovered your website by the use of Google at the same time as looking for a similar topic, your site came up. It looks great. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks to visit then.