Pakistan: Prime Minister Gilani’s ouster – what next?
My recent analysis for Express Tribune published yesterday:
 Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s inevitable ouster has created another storm in Pakistani politics reminding us of the endemic political instability that has plagued the country since its inception. The judicial verdict, which renders Gilani as disqualified since April 2012 may lead to further legal crises. The Supreme Court had its intentions quite clear since January when it rebuked the PM for not implementing its orders. The elected government continued to defy court orders and made political capital out of the judgments, invoking its troubled past with the judiciary.
The recent allegations of corruption levelled by infamous business tycoon Malik Riaz on the chief justice’s son added another twist to the executive-judiciary struggle. Many observers viewed the hand of the executive behind this move. Several detractors of President Zardari also hinted at the latter’s role in this saga. The Supreme Court swiftly reacted and unified in the face of what was interpreted as an ‘attack’ on its independence. The decision to disqualify Gilani therefore comes as a sequel and cannot be isolated from the recent events. Concurrently, the court has also been active on the missing persons case, which implicates powerful members of the security establishment.
Since 2007, there has been a redistribution of power within Pakistan’s formal state structure. The judiciary has emerged as a relatively independent player and has distanced itself from its historical ally, the military. This new reality and power shift was a messy one as it entailed conflict with the civilian and military arms of the executive at various points in recent years. Yesterday’s decision comes as a final expression of this intra-state struggle. Whether this struggle will involve a showdown with the security agencies remains to be seen. However, given the court’s resolve to assert its authority, this eventuality cannot be ruled out.
The PPP and its allies will soon agree on Gilani’s replacement. Whilst the ruling party was prepared for this decision, it seems that the road ahead is going to be a rocky one leading to the announcement of elections prior to the scheduled date of March 2013. It might be difficult for the PPP to garner support the way Gilani did in March 2008. In case there is a logjam, the government would have to announce fresh elections.
Under the 19th Amendment, the PPP and the opposition party, PML-N will have to agree on the composition of the caretaker administration. There is no consensus on the appointment of an Election Commissioner between the two parties. Currently, a serving judge of Supreme Court is working as the Election Commissioner, therefore making the court an ascendant power player in the weeks to come.
As before, the ball is in the court of opposition leader Nawaz Sharif whose sagacity, as a democratic leader, will once again be tested. It remains to be seen if he throws his weight behind civilian politics or chooses to side with the powerful Supreme Court, which, despite its best intentions, is an unelected institution.
The capital has also been abuzz with the usual rumours, in particular the preference for a technocratic government, which may work beyond the 90-day limit and ‘fix’ the economy. This is not a new idea and has been tried in Pakistan and Bangladesh. In both cases, it failed to replace legitimate politics by mainstream parties. Observers are quick to point out that, if political instability continues, and the PPP is unable to manage its allies, the unelected institutions might make extraordinary interventions. Needless to say, the democratic system, despite its failings, remains the best mode of governance for a federal and conflict-ridden Pakistan. Political parties have to remain alert to all possibilities. If the turmoil in the country, partly engineered, due to long hours of load-shedding and mediatisation of this discontent continues, we can expect anything. Pakistan’s history bears testimony to the fact that anything is possible and forces of authoritarianism are always waiting for the right moment.
Published In The Express Tribune, June 20th, 2012.
another prime minister take place more corrupted then him and time goes like that
only imran khan is the solution of pakistan problem
I just want to tell you that I am just new to weblog and absolutely savored your website. Almost certainly I’m want to bookmark your website . You really have fantastic stories. Thanks for revealing your web page.
when i am downloading stuffs over the internet, psp game downloads are always my priority;;
Hmm is anyone else having problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.|
Awesome article.|
I know this website presents quality based posts and additional material, is there any other web page which presents such stuff in quality?|
What’s up, I wish for to subscribe for this blog to get newest updates, therefore where can i do it please help.|
My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the costs. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on numerous websites for about a year and am worried about switching to another platform. I have heard fantastic things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress posts into it? Any help would be really appreciated!|
I think this is one of the most significant info for me. And i am glad reading your article. But want to remark on few general things, The web site style is ideal, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers|
Kurye olarak hizmet veren kişiler, bulundukları lokasyondaki her adrese en kısa sürede ulaşma yolunu bilirler. Üstelik verilen bu görevi hava, trafik ve buna benzer diğer olumsuz şartlardan etkilenmeden yerine getirirler. Yani iş hayatı başta olmak üzere hayatın hemen her alanında önemli görevleri üstlenebilir ve başarıyla yerine getirebilirler. Özellikle büyük şehirlerdeki trafik kaosu ve adres konusundaki karmaşa göze alınırsa, kurye hizmetlerinden faydalanmanın bazı durumlarda zorunlu hale geleceği anlaşılabilir. Örneğin İstanbul’un bir noktasından diğer bir noktasına acil şekilde önemli bir evrak ulaştırmak gerektiğinde ya da hastanızın ihtiyacı olan ilacı acil ve güvenli bir şekilde ulaştırmak gerektiğinde, İstanbul moto kurye hizmetimizden faydalanarak sorununuza çözüm üretebilirsiniz.
Pretty nice post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wanted to say that I’ve really enjoyed browsing your blog posts. After all I’ll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write again soon!|
fantastic post, very informative. I’m wondering why the opposite experts of this sector do not realize this. You must proceed your writing. I am confident, you’ve a great readers’ base already!|
Woah! I’m really loving the template/theme of this website. It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s very hard to get that “perfect balance” between superb usability and appearance. I must say that you’ve done a superb job with this. Additionally, the blog loads extremely fast for me on Firefox. Outstanding Blog!|
I was wondering if you ever thought of changing the layout of your site?
Its very well written; I love what youve got to say.
But maybe you could a little more in the way
of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1
or 2 images. Maybe you could space it out better?
Just desire to say your article is as amazing. The clarity in your post is simply spectacular and i could assume you are an expert on this subject. Fine with your permission let me to grab your RSS feed to keep up to date with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please keep up the enjoyable work.
I do consider all of the ideas you have introduced for your post. They are really convincing and can definitely work. Still, the posts are very short for newbies. May you please lengthen them a bit from subsequent time? Thanks for the post.
Thank you for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do some research on this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more clear from this post. I am very glad to see such great info being shared freely out there.
We’re a group of volunteers and opening a new scheme in our community. Your website provided us with valuable info to work on. You’ve done an impressive job and our entire community will be thankful to you.
I think this is among the most vital info for me. And i am glad reading your article. But want to remark on few general things, The site style is wonderful, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers
Wow, awesome blog layout! How long have you been blogging for? you make blogging look easy. The overall look of your web site is fantastic, as well as the content!
Some really superb content on this web site , appreciate it for contribution.
Very interesting info!Perfect just what I was searching for!